It is no secret around the world that the Iranian regime is in a weak position right now, in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. From the perspective of U.S., Western, and Israeli imperialism, their biggest geopolitical concern about Iran today is the possibility of the Iranian state developing one or more nuclear weapons. It seems evident that many forces within the Iranian regime—not only the new President and other “reformers”, but also other influential figures up to and possibly including the Ayatollah Khamenei himself and his son the heir apparent—are more than ready and willing to negotiate with the United States about a new deal to pause the nuclear program in exchange for a reduction in economic sanctions.
However, it seems likely that the political obstacles that stand in the way of achieving such a deal will prove to be insurmountable in the coming period. The election of Trump and his return to office as U.S. President is by far the most significant factor. It was Trump of course in his first term who unilaterally withdrew from the first nuclear deal that the Obama administration had negotiated with Iran. So it will only be politically acceptable for Trump now to agree to a new deal, if he can claim that his deal imposes harsh new terms that are much “tougher” on Iran than Obama’s old deal was.
But the Iranian regime itself has the same political problem on the opposite side of the negotiating table: Even if Khamenei is willing to agree to some type of new nuclear deal with the United States, it will not be politically acceptable for his regime to tolerate the type of harsh new “tougher” terms that Trump will insist on. The “hardliners” within his regime would revolt against even a hint or suggestion of such a humiliating deal with Trump, who withdrew from the prior deal, reimposed harsh economic sanctions on Iran, and assassinated Iran’s leading regional military commander Qassem Suleimani.
Therefore, it seems unlikely that any possible new nuclear deal could be concluded upon terms that would be politically acceptable both to Trump and to Khamenei’s regime.
In the absence of such a deal, the Iranian regime may feel that it is left with no acceptable political choice other than to proceed with the attempt to develop one or more nuclear weapons. In turn, Netanyahu’s Israeli regime will be eager to prevent such a development, and the previous exchange of direct military attacks between Iran and Israel in 2024 has opened the door, politically and diplomatically, to invite a further escalation of Israeli military attacks against Iran. Netanyahu will not hesitate to take advantage of such an opportunity. It appears that Israel’s attacks in October already succeeded in disabling Iran’s air defenses in key locations, leaving Iran even more vulnerable to an escalation of Israeli military attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
An informative New York Times article in December pointed out that Israel would require the assistance of U.S. military technology, such as a so-called “Massive Ordnance Penetrator” or “bunker buster” and a B-2 bomber, in order to destroy Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear facilities, located deep inside mountains or deep underground.
It would appear to be a likely scenario that Trump, after the Iranian regime rejects the harsh terms that he will propose for a new nuclear deal, may well be inclined to approve Netanyahu’s requests for such military assistance, which previous U.S. administrations have refused to do.
It is the urgent duty of revolutionary socialists everywhere, from those within the United States and elsewhere in the West, to those within Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa, to warn against the escalating danger of such an imperialist U.S.-backed Israeli assault and violation of the national sovereignty of Iran.
The just and rightful hostility that socialists feel toward the far-right reactionary Islamic fundamentalist Iranian regime cannot and must not be allowed to blind us to the need to struggle against the danger of U.S./Israeli imperialist attacks on Iran. The workers and oppressed people of the entire region of the Middle East and North Africa will suffer the consequences if these imperialist attacks succeed, which would strengthen the ability of the U.S. and Israel to repress the masses of the Arab nations across the region. By speaking up in opposition to these imperialist attacks against Iran, the Iranian working class and socialist left will be expressing crucial solidarity with their Arab brothers and sisters in Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain, and everywhere in the Middle East and North Africa.
Tir-e Nimâ
January 2025
Dey 1403
Rajab 1446